And what country can preserve its liberties if their rulers are not warned from time to time that their people preserve the spirit of resistance? Let them take arms. The remedy is to set them right as to facts, pardon and pacify them. What signify a few lives lost in a century or two? The tree of liberty must be refreshed from time to time with the blood of patriots and tyrants.
Tuesday, June 20, 2023
The Titan Traged -- An interesting viewpoint on the whole situation
As a former submariner, there is NO WAY I would've boarded that vessel for a dive. I think the success of it's previous dives equaling its surfacings was a matter of some luck.
Thanks for a very informative video. He raises very legitimate concerns without accusations or judgement. There's a reason us old, white guys survive and thrive in our fields.
News reports this AM indicate that regular banging sounds have been detected, although no location was given.
All of this hoopla and "rescue" effort, over a bunch of people with more money than brains, deployed in an, at best, sketchy vehicle, is beyond reasonable, IMHO. Even if the sub is located at depth, effecting a rescue will be near impossible. More good money down a bad well.
As a former submariner we used to say our safety rules are written in blood. The Navy learned a lot of lessons the hard way. The CEO came from an aviation background and from what I can tell thought submariners were stoggy old farts lacking imagination. After the Nav I worked civilian nuclear power for a while. We studied a lot of aviation incidents as they are very good at teaching team dynamics in bad situations. In other words the human behavior aspects, not the technology or operations aspects.
After the Nav and Civ Nuke I went to work for an OEM and had a boss that wanted to innovate. We proved time and again why the old timers were right. It is a useful exercise for training the young and teaching them why things are done the way they are. But frankly we just relearned a lot of lessons already learned.
Later I worked with executives that thought they could say the magic word innovation and it would happen. I actually gave presentations on my area where we were already State of the Art. I outlined our key technological challenges and where basic tech had to improve in order to allow us to innovate. (Batteries, power density, AI). Fell on deaf ears. Could not believe subject matter experts with decades of experience.
My cousins career has been like yours. Navy sub, civilian nuclear engineer (Three Mile Island), then retired and still consults. Maybe you know him, his name is Frank.
Rich people can use their money to hire people who will tell them what the rich want to hear. That money cannot be used to override reality. I heard that the safety officer was fired for raising questions about safety. If true, that was a bad idea.
The armorer for Rust was more like the Diversity hires that built this thing. "Book? Rules?? Safety requirements??? What are these strange things of which you speak?"
And in both cases, killing people wasn't a matter of if, but rather when.
OceanGate: Diversity Is Our Strength. Windows, not so much.
Apparently the sub went silent & missing 1½ hours into the dive. I'm amazed that it appears not to have been equipped with many emergency systems-redundancy type devices. How is it possible that such a vehicle wouldn't be automatically equipped with a homing beacon and a backup, with enough self-enclosed battery life to exceed the dive? Aircraft black boxes have beacons that last for months, specifically to allow recovery, even in deep oceans. How many other such poorly thought-through thrill rides are out there, one wonders?
How is it possible that such a vehicle wouldn't be automatically equipped with a homing beacon and a backup, with enough self-enclosed battery life to exceed the dive? Aircraft black boxes have beacons that last for months, specifically to allow recovery, even in deep oceans.
After Malaysian Airlines flight MH370 disappeared the ULB (Underwater Locator Beacon) requirements were changed. The battery must power the ULB for 90days and the whole thing weighs maybe 8 ounces. You can buy one from any aviation supply company. The video mentions lessons learned from aviation regarding risk management, but doesn't mention the most important thing which is failsafe system design. For example the lip of the engine cowling is heated by bleed air from the compressor. The valve that controls the bleed air to the cowl is powered closed and spring loaded to open. If there is any problem with the system, (less of electrical power at the buss, broken wire/switch) the anti-ice will be on constantly. If the anti-ice does not come on you can lose engine power and possibly the entire aircraft and all aboard. A good failsafe on a submarine would be a powered ballast retention system where if the power fails the ballast falls off and the submarine rises automatically. If power is required for the ballast to be dropped and you have an electrical problem you're screwed. Also every commercial aircraft has a QRH (Quick Response Handbook) or EPH (Emergency Procedures Handbook) for both pilots. The scenarios (fire, runaway trim, landing gear not extended, etc,) are listed in BOLD face on the cover with a number and the handbook has large numbered tabs. The pilot can find the correct procedure in seconds. Regarding the videographer's concern about smoke and fire, there are emergency O2 systems available and for pilots to see what they're doing there is EVAS.
https://www.visionsafe.com
I'm amazed that the submarine was not lowered, while empty, on a cable to it's design depth to test the pressure vessel. The boss doesn't want to be pestered with questions from topside? Give him an on-off switch on the comm panel. Al_in_Ottawa
If it had five life jackets, a whistle, a fire extinguisher, flares, and a first aid kit, it passed all Coast Guard mandated safety requirements. Everything else is luxury. Until you need it.
I instruct graduating mechanical engineers, lots of enthusiasm, not a lot of full picture, around the corner thinking. One of the first things that I teach is that physics always wins to the point that I make them go and prove the basic physics of what they are trying to do. I also let them know that their mistakes are most likely written in blood. i am somewhat surprised that the sub company doesn't seem to have a plan on what to do when this happens (not if). The only upside is I can see a nice sitcom can come out of this Gilligan's Seafloor. It was a 3 hour tour....
As a retired Submariner, and I work on them in a Public Shipyard, I can probably safely say, that with no communications in the 1st to 2nd days, they're gone.
The only thing left to do is mark the grave site and wonder for the rest of time, What Went Wrong.
I doubt banging on the hull would caused a "debris field." Certainly not if it were resting on the ocean floor. However, had it been resting on the floor, I think they could have released the ballast and simply went back to the surface. It appears to have imploded on the way down. The "banging" was simply something else.
Let's hope all are rescued safe and well but sadly this does look like an accident waiting to happen.
ReplyDeleteA nightmare.
ReplyDeleteAs a former submariner, there is NO WAY I would've boarded that vessel for a dive. I think the success of it's previous dives equaling its surfacings was a matter of some luck.
ReplyDeleteThanks for a very informative video. He raises very legitimate concerns without accusations or judgement. There's a reason us old, white guys survive and thrive in our fields.
ReplyDeleteNews reports this AM indicate that regular banging sounds have been detected, although no location was given.
ReplyDeleteAll of this hoopla and "rescue" effort, over a bunch of people with more money than brains, deployed in an, at best, sketchy vehicle, is beyond reasonable, IMHO. Even if the sub is located at depth, effecting a rescue will be near impossible. More good money down a bad well.
Nemo
Ego is the root cause.
ReplyDeleteAs a former submariner we used to say our safety rules are written in blood. The Navy learned a lot of lessons the hard way. The CEO came from an aviation background and from what I can tell thought submariners were stoggy old farts lacking imagination. After the Nav I worked civilian nuclear power for a while. We studied a lot of aviation incidents as they are very good at teaching team dynamics in bad situations. In other words the human behavior aspects, not the technology or operations aspects.
After the Nav and Civ Nuke I went to work for an OEM and had a boss that wanted to innovate. We proved time and again why the old timers were right. It is a useful exercise for training the young and teaching them why things are done the way they are. But frankly we just relearned a lot of lessons already learned.
Later I worked with executives that thought they could say the magic word innovation and it would happen. I actually gave presentations on my area where we were already State of the Art. I outlined our key technological challenges and where basic tech had to improve in order to allow us to innovate. (Batteries, power density, AI). Fell on deaf ears. Could not believe subject matter experts with decades of experience.
My cousins career has been like yours. Navy sub, civilian nuclear engineer (Three Mile Island), then retired and still consults. Maybe you know him, his name is Frank.
DeleteRich people can use their money to hire people who will tell them what the rich want to hear. That money cannot be used to override reality. I heard that the safety officer was fired for raising questions about safety. If true, that was a bad idea.
ReplyDeleteThe Armorer for "Rust" should have been more like that guy.
DeleteThe armorer for Rust was more like the Diversity hires that built this thing.
Delete"Book? Rules?? Safety requirements??? What are these strange things of which you speak?"
And in both cases, killing people wasn't a matter of if, but rather when.
OceanGate: Diversity Is Our Strength.
Windows, not so much.
Apparently the sub went silent & missing 1½ hours into the dive. I'm amazed that it appears not to have been equipped with many emergency systems-redundancy type devices. How is it possible that such a vehicle wouldn't be automatically equipped with a homing beacon and a backup, with enough self-enclosed battery life to exceed the dive? Aircraft black boxes have beacons that last for months, specifically to allow recovery, even in deep oceans. How many other such poorly thought-through thrill rides are out there, one wonders?
ReplyDeleteHow is it possible that such a vehicle wouldn't be automatically equipped with a homing beacon and a backup, with enough self-enclosed battery life to exceed the dive? Aircraft black boxes have beacons that last for months, specifically to allow recovery, even in deep oceans.
DeleteSpot on, Aggie.
After Malaysian Airlines flight MH370 disappeared the ULB (Underwater Locator Beacon) requirements were changed. The battery must power the ULB for 90days and the whole thing weighs maybe 8 ounces. You can buy one from any aviation supply company.
DeleteThe video mentions lessons learned from aviation regarding risk management, but doesn't mention the most important thing which is failsafe system design. For example the lip of the engine cowling is heated by bleed air from the compressor. The valve that controls the bleed air to the cowl is powered closed and spring loaded to open. If there is any problem with the system, (less of electrical power at the buss, broken wire/switch) the anti-ice will be on constantly. If the anti-ice does not come on you can lose engine power and possibly the entire aircraft and all aboard.
A good failsafe on a submarine would be a powered ballast retention system where if the power fails the ballast falls off and the submarine rises automatically. If power is required for the ballast to be dropped and you have an electrical problem you're screwed.
Also every commercial aircraft has a QRH (Quick Response Handbook) or EPH (Emergency Procedures Handbook) for both pilots. The scenarios (fire, runaway trim, landing gear not extended, etc,) are listed in BOLD face on the cover with a number and the handbook has large numbered tabs. The pilot can find the correct procedure in seconds.
Regarding the videographer's concern about smoke and fire, there are emergency O2 systems available and for pilots to see what they're doing there is EVAS.
https://www.visionsafe.com
I'm amazed that the submarine was not lowered, while empty, on a cable to it's design depth to test the pressure vessel.
The boss doesn't want to be pestered with questions from topside? Give him an on-off switch on the comm panel.
Al_in_Ottawa
If it had five life jackets, a whistle, a fire extinguisher, flares, and a first aid kit, it passed all Coast Guard mandated safety requirements.
DeleteEverything else is luxury.
Until you need it.
I instruct graduating mechanical engineers, lots of enthusiasm, not a lot of full picture, around the corner thinking. One of the first things that I teach is that physics always wins to the point that I make them go and prove the basic physics of what they are trying to do. I also let them know that their mistakes are most likely written in blood. i am somewhat surprised that the sub company doesn't seem to have a plan on what to do when this happens (not if). The only upside is I can see a nice sitcom can come out of this Gilligan's Seafloor. It was a 3 hour tour....
ReplyDeleteSpin Drift
The ghosts of the crew from the H. L. Hunley want a word, please.
ReplyDeleteIf they locate it, all a ROV can do is go and confirm the grave site.
ReplyDeleteTragically, the lessons learned from the USS Thresher seem to have been ignored.
ReplyDeleteLots of lesson's learned ignored here. Sad they all died. But that is the ultimate thrill so they got their moneys worth.
ReplyDeleteAt about the 5:20 mark he explains it all. Nuff said.
ReplyDeleteA catastrophic implosion would be kinder than suffocating in that can 2 miles down.
ReplyDeleteAs a retired Submariner, and I work on them in a Public Shipyard, I can probably safely say, that with no communications in the 1st to 2nd days, they're gone.
ReplyDeleteThe only thing left to do is mark the grave site and wonder for the rest of time, What Went Wrong.
I have trouble believing anyone on the bottom in that thing would think banging really hard on the hull is a 'good idea'.
ReplyDeleteI doubt banging on the hull would caused a "debris field." Certainly not if it were resting on the ocean floor. However, had it been resting on the floor, I think they could have released the ballast and simply went back to the surface. It appears to have imploded on the way down. The "banging" was simply something else.
Delete