And what country can preserve its liberties if their rulers are not warned from time to time that their people preserve the spirit of resistance? Let them take arms. The remedy is to set them right as to facts, pardon and pacify them. What signify a few lives lost in a century or two? The tree of liberty must be refreshed from time to time with the blood of patriots and tyrants.
Three thoughts to keep in mind. First, it seems that what we are seeing is a military that cannot do operational level warfare: over-reliance on single MSRs; failed movement and traffic control; a logistics mess of world class magnitude; snarled echelons; and spear points that are failing from lack of supply; poor basic skills; deployment without any work-up training or marry-up time; and troops with dramatically different levels of moral and leadership. The enemy seems to have made its own huge mistakes; there is a rule of warfare that says never get in the way when this happens. As a target it is appealing, but in this case the best call may be to just let things metastasize. Hammering the hell out of it would allow those responsible to escape their failures and re-motivate or enrage those on their side whose enthusiasm is failing on zero, and up the ante to levels that we are trying to avoid.
Second point is that, like the Russians seem to have not done, we should be aware of the lessons learned coming (again) on asymmetric warfare. Doctrine shows that Western air forces have an intellectual appreciation of the huge advances in AD, but operational experience has been decades without having to face it head-on. There are tons of AD in play and weapons free seems to be everyone's order of the day. How the low and slow guys would fare without a lot of SEAD is an open question.
Precision weapons appear to be the war winners here; blunt the tip; stall the advance; block the rear; and let what is jammed up in the middle rot in place. But keep in mind what I think is our aim here (recognizing that it is not, apparently, Putin's): keeping open an off ramp that gets the Russians out of Ukraine. Dead Russians due to Putin's adventurism are one thing, and plays to our objective. A gratuitous slaughter "just because we can" would be a whole different marker and avoiding this, if possible, should be a planning factor.
An amateur thinks about tactics. A professional thinks about logistics. They are probably unmanned by now anyway. Or will be shortly after the first missile hits. I was thinking about drone strikes from about thirty thousand feet. One at a time. Pop. Pop. Pop. Unmarked ordnance. Nobody claim it. Read somewhere else that they're all on cheap chinesium tires. Have been sitting out in the sun. Unmaintained.
I think that this Russia/Ukraine dustup is being utilized as a major distraction as more and more details are seeing the light of day in regards to how people have been psychologically manipulated since the news first broke about the Wuhan batflu. I also am of the opinion that the Wuhan batflu black op was put in motion not only as a measure to prevent Trump from being re-elected as POTUS, i.e. widescale fraud via mail in balloting, but also as measure of extreme economic warfare. There is not a country in the world, that I am aware of, which is solvent, and some of the major players such as China and Russia, not to mention the U.S., are so insolvent they are on the cusp of collapse economically, which then also collapses the entire world's economic system. This is the largest game of mumblety peg ever devised, Ukraine being the stick, and one the knives being thrown are soon going to hit the mark.
It'd be nice if you had any A-10s, or even an operational air force, none of which the ukes have left. Butthurt, there's alot more columns of Russians on their horizon. Pleasant dreams Ukraines..."while visions of A10s dance in their heads."
Saw a report that says the Ukrainians opened the floodgates on the reservoirs. Now any Russki that leaves the paved road sinks into the mud. Many vehicles are out of gas, dead batteries and the troops and drivers hiking back to where they can get food and water. I thought the story implausible, but why is the column not moving? Every day makes it more likely to be true. Vlad may be screwed.
Has anybody here actually seen any of this, or are we relying on "reports".
Fake pix, pix and video from months or years ago, video from a game, FFS, presented as truth.
Personally, I'm getting tired of the, "Rah,Rah, the Russian are losing, donate to the valiant Ukies" bullshit.
FWIW, I worked with couple people from that part of the world, who still have family on the east side of the Ukraine. The situation on the ground running up was nothing like what we've been told.
Yep....every pilot who's ever flown an A10 or an Apache got a serious case of blue balls looking at that line of targets.
ReplyDeleteLike the Highway of Death when the Republican Guard retreated from Kuwait. Shooting fish in a barrel.
ReplyDeleteAnd every F-15 pilot is dreaming about flying CAP over those high value targets.
ReplyDeleteThree thoughts to keep in mind. First, it seems that what we are seeing is a military that cannot do operational level warfare: over-reliance on single MSRs; failed movement and traffic control; a logistics mess of world class magnitude; snarled echelons; and spear points that are failing from lack of supply; poor basic skills; deployment without any work-up training or marry-up time; and troops with dramatically different levels of moral and leadership. The enemy seems to have made its own huge mistakes; there is a rule of warfare that says never get in the way when this happens. As a target it is appealing, but in this case the best call may be to just let things metastasize. Hammering the hell out of it would allow those responsible to escape their failures and re-motivate or enrage those on their side whose enthusiasm is failing on zero, and up the ante to levels that we are trying to avoid.
ReplyDeleteSecond point is that, like the Russians seem to have not done, we should be aware of the lessons learned coming (again) on asymmetric warfare. Doctrine shows that Western air forces have an intellectual appreciation of the huge advances in AD, but operational experience has been decades without having to face it head-on. There are tons of AD in play and weapons free seems to be everyone's order of the day. How the low and slow guys would fare without a lot of SEAD is an open question.
Precision weapons appear to be the war winners here; blunt the tip; stall the advance; block the rear; and let what is jammed up in the middle rot in place. But keep in mind what I think is our aim here (recognizing that it is not, apparently, Putin's): keeping open an off ramp that gets the Russians out of Ukraine. Dead Russians due to Putin's adventurism are one thing, and plays to our objective. A gratuitous slaughter "just because we can" would be a whole different marker and avoiding this, if possible, should be a planning factor.
Excellent synopsis Anon, and,
ReplyDeleteNever, ever, interrupt the enemy when he is attempting to destroy himself!
An amateur thinks about tactics. A professional thinks about logistics.
DeleteThey are probably unmanned by now anyway. Or will be shortly after the first missile hits. I was thinking about drone strikes from about thirty thousand feet. One at a time. Pop. Pop. Pop. Unmarked ordnance. Nobody claim it. Read somewhere else that they're all on cheap chinesium tires. Have been sitting out in the sun. Unmaintained.
I think that this Russia/Ukraine dustup is being utilized as a major distraction as more and more details are seeing the light of day in regards to how people have been psychologically manipulated since the news first broke about the Wuhan batflu. I also am of the opinion that the Wuhan batflu black op was put in motion not only as a measure to prevent Trump from being re-elected as POTUS, i.e. widescale fraud via mail in balloting, but also as measure of extreme economic warfare. There is not a country in the world, that I am aware of, which is solvent, and some of the major players such as China and Russia, not to mention the U.S., are so insolvent they are on the cusp of collapse economically, which then also collapses the entire world's economic system. This is the largest game of mumblety peg ever devised, Ukraine being the stick, and one the knives being thrown are soon going to hit the mark.
ReplyDeleteDefinitely a misdirection, slight of hand. The kung flu up and disappeared. The hildebeast report is out there. Hunter's laptop.
DeleteIt'd be nice if you had any A-10s, or even an operational air force, none of which the ukes have left. Butthurt, there's alot more columns of Russians on their horizon. Pleasant dreams Ukraines..."while visions of A10s dance in their heads."
ReplyDeleteSaw a report that says the Ukrainians opened the floodgates on the reservoirs. Now any Russki that leaves the paved road sinks into the mud. Many vehicles are out of gas, dead batteries and the troops and drivers hiking back to where they can get food and water.
ReplyDeleteI thought the story implausible, but why is the column not moving?
Every day makes it more likely to be true. Vlad may be screwed.
Has anybody here actually seen any of this, or are we relying on "reports".
ReplyDeleteFake pix, pix and video from months or years ago, video from a game, FFS, presented as truth.
Personally, I'm getting tired of the, "Rah,Rah, the Russian are losing, donate to the valiant Ukies" bullshit.
FWIW, I worked with couple people from that part of the world, who still have family on the east side of the Ukraine. The situation on the ground running up was nothing like what we've been told.
Hope I'm not puncturing anyone's balloon.