Wednesday, October 30, 2019

The sun has been without sunspots for 224 days so far this year.

The Dalton Minimum 1790 to 1830 brought with it a period of lower-than-average global temperatures. The Oberlach Station in Germany, for example, experienced a 2C decline over 20 years, which devastated the country’s food production. The Year Without a Summer also occurred during the Dalton Minimum (in 1816). As did crop failures across Eurasia & the Americas, which led to food riots, famine and ultimately the deaths of millions upon millions of people.
That 40-year temperature decline (1790-1830) matches perfectly with a dip in solar activity. 
And so do temperature plunges of the past — preceding the Dalton were the much deeper Maunder and Spörer Grand Solar Minimums.
Taking the Maunder Minimum 1645 to 1715 (as we have far more data for it than the Spörer), we see it’s 70-or-so year spell of global cold, crop loss, and famine again correlates neatly with a sharp decline in solar output. During this Grand Solar Minimum, the Sun was all-but devoid of sunspots for not just years, but decades at a time.
An extended cold spell could occur, lasting for years.  It has in the past, and will again in the future.  Prepare accordingly.


  1. I know. I keep telling people about the coming ice age and they think that I'm kidding. Today at the White Wolf Mine it is 18 degrees, and I'm burning carbon in the fireplace, turning it into an aerosol in an effort to save the planet. You're welcome.

  2. I've always thought the Big Glowing Thing in the Sky had something to do with temperature outside my house.

  3. It turns out Sol is a variable star: solar irradiance ramps up and drops back every 11 years or so -- not by much, and not by the same amount each cycle.
    Solar irradiance ramps up by between nothing and about 0.2%. The global warming that all the shouting about is about? A 0.1% increase. Hmmm.

    Magnetohydrodynamics shows how increased irradiance drives the solar magnetic field into bundles that cause sunspots, so historical sunspot counts give a direct readout of solar irradiance back through the early 1600s.

    No sunspots? Sol wasn't shining as hard. Earth cooled off? D'oh.

  4. The Year Without a Summer was mainly due to volcanic ash & particulate in the atmosphere from the 1815 eruption of Mt. Tambora in the Dutch East Indies, and possibly of Mayon in the Philippines as well. Not that low sunspot activity didn't exacerbate things...

  5. Damn. I don't want a whole batch of cold weather. I hate to shovel snow.

  6. The huge heat capacity of the oceans means that significant cooling would require decades of no sun spots.

    1. seventy years is decades ain't it?
      like as not, don't care for the deep cold. had enough of that in the arctic. visited down at McMurdo Station a few times during the late antarctic summer long ago. it was unpleasant. going to fire up the wood burner in the back yard. need a cord.