Thursday, March 30, 2023

And people disrespect capitalism: SpaceX 80% of Space Payloads in 2023 and 99.99% in 2026

SpaceX and China were roughly tied in 2022 with 61 and 62 orbital launches but SpaceX had more payload. Combined SpaceX and China were 80% of orbital launches in 2022. SpaceX is on pace to double its launches in 2023. Elon indicates that SpaceX should deliver 80% of all of the payloads in 2023. This is even without the Super Heavy Starship getting into operation. 

Super Heavy Starship will eventually have more frequent launches and each launch will have five to ten times the payload.

SpaceX will have built five complete Super-heavy Starships by the end of 2023. If those were flying every week in 2024, then that would be 250 launches with five to seven times the payload. This would mean about 15 times the payload versus 2023. 

SpaceX has a Raptor engine factory that can scale to 4000 engines per year. This would be enough for one hundred Super-Heavy Starships per year. This could mean 10,000 launches per year with 10 times the payload in each launch. This would be one thousand times the 2023 payload launch capacity. SpaceX would reach 99.99% of payloads with a fleet of 100+ Super Heavy Starships. This seems to be certain by 2026.


  1. What part of free market capitalism includes the government stealing monies or creating money out of thin air (as opposed to voluntary exchange by consumers) to pay to private companies? Sounds more in line with Mussolini's definition of economic fascism.

  2. Because I was severely introverted then forced out of my shell in highschool following after a very popular brother whom the girls thought dreamy, I developed a scheme to show them ('them', the whole wide world that wouldn't leave me alone) up.

    Very comfortable with books since forever, I was well read and knew a heckuva lot of information.
    That plus my 'devious anger' (passive aggressive) led me to conjure all kinds of absurdities. But what I would say was unveiled as an absurdity and falsehood only if one knew better. Even the grade A highschool student didn't know any better. The best might be suspicious but no more than that.

    Unsuspected by them was their complicity in my scheming; their every believing, even their doubt only emboldened me. Them not possessing the truth was a great encouragement to me. Ignorant people deserve to be treated ignorantly

    Now, consider most Americans stopped learning no later than their early 20s. Top that with a lifetime of TV garbage. Do not be in the least surprised that they'll tie the hook, bait the hook, swallow the hook, to be led to their slaughter.

    I have been keenly watching the machinations of the citizenry, as individuals and as a whole, ever since.

    As dreary and off putting this sounds, know this; that what is done can be undone. Your fellows rely on you, though they be unaware, to lead them to an understanding congruent to that of the Founders.

    Of course that is problematic. The problem to be solved is if you are up to the arduous task.

  3. All I can think of are the lyrics to IGY by Donald Fagen: "90 minutes from New York to Paris"... But With the SpaceX Starship, NY to Paris would be 20 minutes.... NY, US to Sidney, AU would be 50 thats a 23 hour trip...