Looks like we can expect one big shooting star

Kosmos 482 was launched from the Soviet Union 42 years ago on a mission to Venus. The rocket that was suppose to boost the probe out of earth orbit failed, leaving the heavy-duty probe circling overhead ever since.

Space watchers have predicted it will fall to earth sometime between 2023 and 2025, but recent recalculations say it may come down as early as this year. Designed to survive the harsh Venusian atmosphere, the more than 1,000 lb. probe is expected to remain intact as it streaks towards earth making quite an impression if it happens strike land.

Kosmos 482 is in an orbit that is so severely elliptical, at its furthest away it can be 1,700 miles from the Earth’s surface, while at its closest it is just 125 miles above our planet. It’s at this ‘perigee’ in the object’s orbit that Kosmos 482 is most exposed to the drag caused by the upper layers of the atmosphere, slowing it down ever so slightly and putting the stability of its orbit at further risk.

Kosmos is moving incredibly quickly, making one lap of the planet every 112 minutes, and it is estimated that it weighs around 1,091 lbs. (495 kilograms). That means not only is it difficult to predict when it might fall to Earth, it’s equally as difficult to get an idea of where it might land.