Saturday, May 26, 2018

The Russians have already conceded defeat to SpaceX

“Musk said it’s ‘game over,’ and I [John Young] believe that’s true.”
Nextbigfuture analysis is that SpaceX has built a lead that will take 15 years for competitors to match with the Falcon 9 Block 5 and the Falcon Heavy. Around 2028, China might start test flights something approaching the Falcon 9 block 5 with the Long March 8.
If SpaceX delivers the fully reusable SpaceX BFR rocket for launching 150 tons into space at a cost of $10-30 million per launch by 2023, then it could be 2035 before any nation or company can match it. It would take $10-30 billion to develop such a competing system. SpaceX will be sucking up all of the commercial launches from any potential competitor.

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