The Russians have already conceded defeat to SpaceX

Former Pentagon Under Secretary of Defense for acquisition tech and logistics John Young told CNBC in February that no one can compete with even Falcon Heavy, let alone BFR.

“Musk said it’s ‘game over,’ and I [John Young] believe that’s true.”

Nextbigfuture analysis is that SpaceX has built a lead that will take 15 years for competitors to match with the Falcon 9 Block 5 and the Falcon Heavy. Around 2028, China might start test flights something approaching the Falcon 9 block 5 with the Long March 8.

If SpaceX delivers the fully reusable SpaceX BFR rocket for launching 150 tons into space at a cost of $10-30 million per launch by 2023, then it could be 2035 before any nation or company can match it. It would take $10-30 billion to develop such a competing system. SpaceX will be sucking up all of the commercial launches from any potential competitor.