Sunday, November 27, 2022

Maybe a cold winter?


Snow extent in the Northern Hemisphere at the end of November represents an important parameter for the early winter forecast. This year snow extent is running much higher than average and according to existing global estimates, it is now beyond the highest ever observed so far. Winter forecast, especially in its early phase and in Europe, might be strongly influenced by such a large snow extent, although many other factors need attention.

The Weekly Northern Hemisphere snow cover extent for the winter season 2022-2023 in purple is plotted together with the mean (grey dashed line), maximum (blue), and minimum (orange) snow cover extent for each week. Mean weekly snow cover extent and extremes were calculated using the 56-year period from October 1966 to July 2022.


  1. Predicting the weather remains a crapshoot. Of the 16 inches of snow which fell here in GR, Michigan last weekend; official measurement at the airport (GRR) was 24.3 inches; the only snow remaining on the ground are piles from plows and shoveling. Even in the Keweenaw up in the U.P. this past week, temps hit 50 degrees and their snow is mostly gone. We'll see what kind of winter we end up with, I guess.

  2. This guy has been looking at the long-range forecasts - Dec is going to be quite cold in the US, but historically cold in Germany. Furniture-burning, cites-go-dark cold?

    November isn't over, but already their stored underground gas supply is being drawn down. Polar Vortex hard times coming.

  3. Way too early to tell. Weather forecasting beyond a couple days is at best voodoo.

    1. Meh - sometimes, depending on weather feature and location. Forecasting and modeling have come a long way. They can tell a week out that a hurricane is going to form, but not forecast its actual path more than a few days out - it's more a case of narrowing error bars. The snowfall chart above is present time, not forecast. The polar air mass that is charted is present time, not forecast - but it's massive, and like a hurricane, its forecast future is not so much in question, just the extent of the severity felt.

  4. If the railroads go on strike. Propane is gonna get really tight.