Wednesday, November 27, 2019

Interesting take on the trade dispute between President Trump and China, over at Conservative Treehouse

If so, Hong Kong and its unrest is just the start of Chairman Xi's problems.
President Trump is famously impatient in achieving a financial objective.  He is known to have well thought plans, but he is also known to not pause long when executing his plan. This economic impatience may seem to be at odds with the majority of the financial media who say President Trump is playing a long-game with Chairman Xi Jinping.
ERGO the dichotomy is explained thus:  If President Trump is famously impatient, then why is he being so deliberate and painfully slow in achieving a deal with Chairman Xi?…
Here’s the ‘ah-ha’ moment.
….The current status with China was the final objective.
President Trump looks like he’s being stunningly patient because President Trump achieved his goal when no-one was paying attention. We are already past the success point.
The goal is essentially achieved.
There is no actual intent to reach a trade deal with China where the U.S. drops the tariffs and returns to holding hands with a happy panda playing by new rules.  This fictional narrative is a figment of fantasy being sold by a financial media that cannot fathom a U.S. President would be so bold as to just walk away from China.
That ‘walk away’ is exactly what President Trump did when he left all of those meetings in Southeast Asia in 2017; and every moment since has been setting up, and firming up, an entirely new global supply chain without China.
President Trump is not currently engaged in a substantive trade agreement in the formal way people are thinking about it.  Instead “Phase-One” is simply President Trump negotiating the terms of a big Agricultural purchase commitment from Beijing, and also protecting some very specific U.S. business interests (think Apple Co.) in the process.
The actual goal of President Trump’s U.S-China trade reset is a complete decoupling of U.S. critical manufacturing within China.


  1. In all situations there are winners and losers. The overall trucking industry and the companies that manufacture the trucks are hurting. The railroads are hurting. Their businesses have always been cyclic. The volume of freight is down.

    1. You have to take your foot off the throttle, (Chinese imports) to up shift gears (re-build American manufacturing)
      Then we can hammer down again!

    2. Does the opening of the new Panamax canal in Panama reduce the need for so much trucking and rail freight from the West coast since container freight can now be delivered to the Gulf of Mexico or even the east coast by ship?

  2. A fascinating take on the ‘hidden’ plan.

  3. Trump is impatient"????

    How long did he wait to get the place in Florida, Mar del Largo?

    Trump will set a goal, and wait for it to happen (or not.) He's also been known to say "I want X" when he wants actually wants Y.

  4. trump appears to have great faith in the OODA concept of economic battle. one of the great things trump has always done is to rapidly engauge his foe and constantly adjust his response to the foe's responses before that response actually takes place; constantly keeping his foe engaged and not allowing his for the time needed to consider an response. because trump has already changed the conditions of the engagement to the next level.
    the key to successfully engage with China is that China's leadership is a bureaucracy with a huge decision tree which they find they must consult, five year plans being what they are, and that takes a lot of time. on trump's side, he needs to keep his own bureaucracy throttled down so that it does not slow his own responses. this keeps leaks to a low level. this is probably what the unelected leadership in our own government is pissed at trump about.
    do you think trump is using "rules of war" to the detriment of China? In any case, in all things, when in doubt, follow the money.