And what country can preserve its liberties if their rulers are not warned from time to time that their people preserve the spirit of resistance? Let them take arms. The remedy is to set them right as to facts, pardon and pacify them. What signify a few lives lost in a century or two? The tree of liberty must be refreshed from time to time with the blood of patriots and tyrants.
Tuesday, March 1, 2022
Video of a shell hitting a TV tower in Kyiv -- amazing structural integrity.
You’d think in our modern weapons era it would have been a direct hit, not a miss…which is why people are suggesting a lot of what is being played is projection.
1. Without knowing the target (Desired Mean Point of Impact or DMPI to use the trade school phrase) it's hard to say if it missed. It's possible the target was next to the tower (say a control center or equipment shelter, or a transformer yard providing power. Much easier to take out than a tower).
2. Stuff happens. Warhead and guidance components are made by the lowest bidder. They have to be maintained throughout their life prior to launch, as does their launch platforms. So some error is always present and it adds up. Murphy always gets a vote, as does the enemy (i.e. spoofing and jamming are still a thing).
Randy, is Mean in this case defined as an average?
I do not pretend to know anything of modern guided ordnance, yet I wonder the accuracy of geodata available at the .mil level would allow for weaponry fired from xx range to be able to impact the proverbial blade of grass, an antenna in this case.
In a former life my company was one of those 'lowest bidders'. I realize the term is meant as some kind of pejorative but in reality it is based in ignorance. Namely, there is the usually lengthy set of requirements which must be acheived else the contractor be termed non-performing. While the requirements do define the minimums, they still must be met. Therefore, if there be objection, it is the project engineers - the writers of the requirements - which are the subject.
I should have used "Aimpoint" as we are probably talking about a guided weapon. DMPI is more for multiple warhead (dumb bombs from a smart aircraft, cluster munitions etc.). It was late and it's been a while since I did this for a living. Mean is kinda sorta average, but you need to talk to a statistician for the details. I was just concentrating on getting the boom in the right place.
Lowest bidder was not meant as a pejorative but simply a fact of life. These weapons are not custom built bespoke pieces* but mass produced to a standard that is hopefully useful in the real world. The difference between buying a car off the lot vs going to a custom speed shop.
* Well except for the GBU-28 used in DESERT STORM, the first ones were essentially custom builds using spare parts to get them into service ASAP. Production of it became more formalized later.
Oh, and while the Geodata available is very precise, it may not be accurate. (precision is not the same as accuracy).
"The map is not the terrain".
And back to my original point: we don't know that the antenna was the target. It's very possible the weapon accurately hit precisely the target that was intended.
When I did it for a living, I never targeted antennas, I went after the infrastructure/people that was using the antenna. Antennas are a useful indicator that something worthwhile may be there, but in an of themselves usually not a very productive use of munitions.
That was probably one of the Khakov airport strikes on the airport infrastructure. I think I have seen that tower at times in these live feeds.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=x3yMxxAkN4w
On day two You could see all the billowing black smoke from the airport damage.
They are 8 hours ahead. Mostly calm in the feeds traffic and people walking except the Khakov feed has very little movement. The feeds change some during the day.
Looks to me like it exploded behind the tower...
ReplyDeleteIOW the missed.
Yes, there is another video from a different angle that shows exactly what you said. The round actually hit behind the tower, but close.
ReplyDeleteYou’d think in our modern weapons era it would have been a direct hit, not a miss…which is why people are suggesting a lot of what is being played is projection.
ReplyDelete1. Without knowing the target (Desired Mean Point of Impact or DMPI to use the trade school phrase) it's hard to say if it missed. It's possible the target was next to the tower (say a control center or equipment shelter, or a transformer yard providing power. Much easier to take out than a tower).
ReplyDelete2. Stuff happens. Warhead and guidance components are made by the lowest bidder. They have to be maintained throughout their life prior to launch, as does their launch platforms. So some error is always present and it adds up. Murphy always gets a vote, as does the enemy (i.e. spoofing and jamming are still a thing).
Randy, is Mean in this case defined as an average?
DeleteI do not pretend to know anything of modern guided ordnance, yet I wonder the accuracy of geodata available at the .mil level would allow for weaponry fired from xx range to be able to impact the proverbial blade of grass, an antenna in this case.
In a former life my company was one of those 'lowest bidders'. I realize the term is meant as some kind of pejorative but in reality it is based in ignorance. Namely, there is the usually lengthy set of requirements which must be acheived else the contractor be termed non-performing. While the requirements do define the minimums, they still must be met. Therefore, if there be objection, it is the project engineers - the writers of the requirements - which are the subject.
Delete(How's that for sidesteppping?)
Rick,
DeleteI should have used "Aimpoint" as we are probably talking about a guided weapon. DMPI is more for multiple warhead (dumb bombs from a smart aircraft, cluster munitions etc.). It was late and it's been a while since I did this for a living. Mean is kinda sorta average, but you need to talk to a statistician for the details. I was just concentrating on getting the boom in the right place.
Lowest bidder was not meant as a pejorative but simply a fact of life. These weapons are not custom built bespoke pieces* but mass produced to a standard that is hopefully useful in the real world. The difference between buying a car off the lot vs going to a custom speed shop.
* Well except for the GBU-28 used in DESERT STORM, the first ones were essentially custom builds using spare parts to get them into service ASAP. Production of it became more formalized later.
Oh, and while the Geodata available is very precise, it may not be accurate. (precision is not the same as accuracy).
Delete"The map is not the terrain".
And back to my original point: we don't know that the antenna was the target. It's very possible the weapon accurately hit precisely the target that was intended.
When I did it for a living, I never targeted antennas, I went after the infrastructure/people that was using the antenna. Antennas are a useful indicator that something worthwhile may be there, but in an of themselves usually not a very productive use of munitions.
That was probably one of the Khakov airport strikes on the airport infrastructure. I think I have seen that tower at times in these live feeds.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.youtube.com/watch?v=x3yMxxAkN4w
On day two You could see all the billowing black smoke from the airport damage.
They are 8 hours ahead. Mostly calm in the feeds traffic and people walking except the Khakov feed has very little movement. The feeds change some during the day.
Yes I know they could fake these also.
Delete