Tuesday, June 26, 2018

Wow. The reality two by four really hurts when it gets you right between the eyes: Chinese Ministers begin to admit they cannot win a trade confrontation with U.S. President Trump.

The Red Chinese knee will bend, it's just a question of when.
China is a production-based economic model, they do not have the ability, or wealth, to consume their own durable goods production; they rely on exports.
The U.S. is a more balanced economy; we consume 80% of our own production.  We are self-sustaining, China is not.
Without a market to sell their products, the Chinese economy cannot survive.
Conversely, China has focused so intensely on durable-goods manufacturing, their consumable goods market (food) is dependent; they cannot feed themselves.  The U.S. can survive without exporting food, China cannot survive without importing food.  The U.S. economy can survive without importing durable goods; the Chinese economy cannot survive without exporting durable goods.  This is the unavoidable trade reality.  As a consequence President Trump has all the factual leverage.
In stunning, and carefully worded economic writings, Chinese academics and economic ministers are now talking about the inherent weakness of the Red Dragon policies:
(Bloomberg) Xi Jinping vowed to match Donald Trump blow for blow in any trade war. Now as one gets closer, some in Beijing are starting to openly wonder whether China is ready for the fight — an unusually direct challenge to the leadership of the world’s second-largest economy.
The essays have raised concerns that the ruling Communist Party underestimated the depth of anti-China sentiment in Washington and risked a premature showdown with the world’s sole superpower. Such views push the bounds of acceptable public debate in a nation where dissent can lead to censure or even jail time, and are particularly bold given Xi has amassed unrivaled control while leading China to a more assertive role on the world stage.
[…] “It seems like Chinese officials were mentally unprepared for the approaching trade friction or trade war,” Gao Shanwen, chief economist for Beijing-based Essence Securities Co., whose biggest shareholders include large state-owned enterprises, wrote in one widely circulated commentary.

Read the whole article linked above - it's great.

One thing to add.  Contrary to popular perception, the Communist Chinese are a very brittle country.  The Communists rule, ultimately, only by the power of force, from the barrel of a gun.

Like the Soviet Union of old, which Reagan destroyed without firing a shot, the Red Chinese are much weaker than most think.   Domestic discontent is only a severe economic recession away, and the tyrants that rule that nation know it.  Their necks will stretch if the economy tanks and the people rise up, as the government's only legitimacy comes from the economic success that they've had by participating successfully in the world economy.   Absent that, well, there may be a "Ceausescu Moment" for Xi and his henchmen.  They are well aware of this, and so is Trump.  He has all the leverage.

6 comments:

  1. extremely well said, points I have been making for years. No other major economy is as self sustaining as the U.S.

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  2. Many Chinese factories are owned by various military groups of the Army. And run using prisoners in basically slave situations. A worker uprising over working conditions or pay or both would shut the country down if it got picked up and spread to even 10% of the system.

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    1. The PLA owns some and the Ministry of Public Order owns others.

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  3. Xi said in an interview several years ago, “The thing thats keeps me awake at night is how to create 25-30 million new jobs per year.” He knows...

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  4. I found these Bloomberg articles relevant. Although behind a paywall, heir site does give you free views of a limited number of articles.

    Financial Markets
    https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-06-27/china-think-tank-warns-of-financial-panic-risk-in-leaked-note

    I especially liked:
    https://www.bloomberg.com/view/articles/2018-06-24/why-china-can-t-fix-its-housing-bubble

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  5. Trump wins another international arm-wrestling match again. He's the man of steel with arms like Popeye's.

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