It references a recent poll that had Obama up nationally by one.
The answer is surprisingly simple. A commenter put it perfectly when he said this:
D+9 poll when obama won in 2008 with an historically high D+7 electorate. The job of this poll is to dishearten Romney supporters. But I love it! It's a great poll. We'll just shift it down to D+3 (average of last 30 years IIRC from Jay Cost?) and we'll shift it 3 points to go from Registered to Likely voters.... and I'll call it 51-42 Romney. In other words, the pollsters are just purposely exaggerating the Democratic vote, for what purpose, I don't know. I call a landslide in November.