Four simple words

Richard Fernandez over at the Belmont Club has put up another incisive post about foreign policy, and the necessary things needed to make it work.  Read it all.

The rhetorical question is often asked: what do conservatives want president Obama to do about the Ukraine? As one commenter put it: “are you suggesting we should mobilize and take off on another foreign adventure to secure Ukraine?”

This completely misstates the problem whose roots lie in the understanding of four very common words: could, can’t,won’t and will. 

President Obama has made it appear that he simply chooses not to stop Putin — won’t — as if it were a question of choice. But the allies are increasingly coming to suspect that he can’t because of cuts he’s made to America’s levers of influence, including hobbling its oil industry, in order to divert those resources to domestic political constituencies. It’s not that he won’t halt Putin, but he can’t.

This analysis also applies Obama’s Red Lines. Red Lines are a combination of these four simple words.

The Red Line Obama drew in Syria is supported by the can. The US Navy and Air Force can bomb Assad out of office. But Obama lacked the should — the legal authority — and above all he lacked will or determination to do it.  If you lack the will or the means, then no Red Line.

The United States can’t draw a Red Line in the Ukraine for another reason. It lacks the capability. If the United States had the capacity to intervene in Ukraine, then the discussion might revolve around the shoulds of the case. But we’re not even there since the capability to act has been traded away in any case. 

Actually if president Obama had the credible capacity intervene in the Ukraine it would draw a protective shield over it without him ever uttering a word. This is what Teddy Roosevelt meant when he said “speak softly but carry a big stick”.   As it is, Obama utters lots and lots of words to no effect, a case of  ’speak for hours and carry a toothpick’.

About all one can do now is build up capacity so that if Vladimir ever came to Finland or Poland there will be an actual choice available to the US in that contingency.

Then Obama could. Which doesn’t mean he will unless he makes the choice. But things will become so much more uncertain for Putin if Obama can.  One of the most ironic things about the Obama presidency is that Yes We Can hasn’t even been replaced by No We Won’t.  It has shriveled to No We Can’t.

Rebuilding the can is not enough. It is also important to reconstitute the should and the will.  One of the reasons why removing the restrictions on natural gas exploration and export is so powerful is that it sends a signal to Moscow that Washington’s spine is back. The will is back. After all if Obama can nerve himself to take on the Sierra Club, there’s a better than average chance he’ll take on Putin next time.  But if he won’t even drill he simply won’t do squat: not for Ukraine, not for Finland, not for Poland.